| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Holy Cross | 19-17 | 1519.5 | -53.0 | 1466.5 | 84.3% |
| 3 | Sep 5 2025 | L | Maryland | 9-20 | 1466.5 | +21.3 | 1487.8 | 18.5% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Mississippi State | 10-38 | 1485.9 | -19.5 | 1466.4 | 14.8% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | L | San Diego State | 3-6 | 1466.4 | +1.8 | 1468.2 | 34.7% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | Miami (OH) | 14-25 | 1468.2 | -25.2 | 1443.0 | 41.0% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Eastern Michigan | 10-16 | 1443.0 | -18.9 | 1424.1 | 72.1% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Ohio | 21-48 | 1424.1 | -35.1 | 1389.0 | 27.9% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Ball State | 21-7 | 1389.0 | +18.7 | 1407.7 | 64.7% |
| 12 | Nov 5 2025 | L | Toledo | 3-42 | 1407.8 | -51.6 | 1356.2 | 21.6% |
| 13 | Nov 12 2025 | W | Massachusetts | 45-3 | 1356.2 | +56.2 | 1412.4 | 82.2% |
| 14 | Nov 18 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 19-35 | 1412.4 | -18.0 | 1394.4 | 33.1% |
| 15 | Nov 28 2025 | L | Kent State | 31-35 | 1394.4 | -28.1 | 1366.3 | 74.5% |